From January 1, 2017, the decision to increase excise taxes comes into force. The rise in price will also affect e-liquids containing nicotine.
I do not expect a price of 220 rubles per pack, even in the premium sector. This increase will be due only to the increase in excise taxes, but 220 rubles per pack is not expected. On average, the increase across the entire line will be 15-18 rubles.
The estimated price due to the increase in excise rates will be 112-115 rubles per pack, the market average. This is a serious increase in comparison with previous years.
It is difficult to say why in Russia there is such a large excise tax, in contrast to other countries. Tobacco excise taxes are increasing in all countries, but in Belarus, for example, the limiting factor is that the largest producer there is a state-owned enterprise; they have no particular motivation to raise the excise tax and transfer funds in the same budget from one pocket to another. In Kazakhstan, there is private production, and the focus is on the purchasing power of the population.
The quality of tobacco does not decrease, because the share of raw tobacco in the cost price is not so high. About 50% is taken by the state in the form of excise taxes and other taxes, and about 20% is taken by trade partners, retail and wholesalers. The remaining 30% includes everything: the company's profit, and the cost of materials, labor, and tobacco as well. And only tobacco affects the quality. It is nonsense to argue that, out of economy, manufacturers began to buy cheaper tobaccos. The reason may be improper storage, but this does not exist as a systemic phenomenon.
Now there is a less harmful alternative to health - these are electronic cigarettes. And it is good if smokers switch to them. But excise taxes are also introduced on them, and conversations about some kind of prohibitions and restrictions also begin. This, of course, is a very undesirable tendency, since this is how the consumer gets his nicotine, but not carcinogens. This would be a boon to the population. And other alternatives to stay with tobacco are illegal products smuggled from Belarus, Kazakhstan, these are the main flows today. There is also underground production, but so far its share seems to be not very high.